On April 10th negotiations for the formation of a new governing coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD in Berlin were concluded, after several weeks of negotiations that had begun in the aftermath of the federal elections February 23th. In those elections the CDU/CSU obtained a little more than 28%, the SPD sank to 16% and the AFD got nearly 21%, in East Germany even in some regions above 30%. The CDU /CSU however has made clear – with a few exceptions in their ranks- that they do not intend to have any constructive dialogue with the AFD (“civilized contempt”-it is said- E.H.). It’s a party which they want to marginalize. The only good news about the incoming government is that the Greenie Party with its obsession for overregulation of the green energy program as well as its feminist moralizing foreign policy agenda, will not be part of the next government.
A pre- taste in which direction the future German government is going, was indicated by an interview which the incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz gave to Caren Miosga from the 1. TV channel ARD, April 13th. Being asked about whether he still would think about sending the technologically very sophisticated German Cruise missile “Taurus” to Ukraine, Merz, according to dpa (web.de), reacted promptly. He made reference to last week’s Russian missile attack against the city of Sumy, qualifying this as one of Putin’s worst crimes: “The Russian missiles used in Sumy”, these “were clearly and undoubtedly war crimes,” Merz said. “I will tell all those who naively hope that Putin could stop this conflict- and I was in Bucha and saw what had happened there – is, that “Putin is the worst war criminal! Those who dream about negotiations, Putin sees this as a sign of weakness,” Merz stated. He emphatically underlined that if Putin does not stop his military offensive, “the German Government will consider to give Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine. Of course, I have always said that this must be done in coordination with our European partners. Those partners (UK, France, US) have already delivered such weapons before.”
During the interview Merz demonstrated a quite belligerent mind – set. In respect to the Ukraine war which “is raging since more than 3 years, the Ukraine army must finally get out of its defensive attitude. It only reacts but must also be on ‘top of events’”, Merz stated. In order to really enable Ukraine to do this, Merz suggested at one point, that the Ukraine army with the help of the Taurus missile could for example aim at destroying the most important “land connection between Russia and Crimea”- the 19 km newly constructed Kertsch Bridge. He underlined that “it is Crimea where Russia’s biggest military supplies are coming from for the Russian army.” (In this context one should remember that in March 2024 a spectacular scandal broke out in Germany, when Russian intelligence by way of an eave dropping operation made public a “secret” telephone conversation between the German Airforce Commander and some of his underlings, discussing on the phone how to circumvent the existent “tabu” and enable Ukraine to make use of Taurus. At that time, they secretly discussed the modalities for attacking the famous Kertsch Bridge. E.H.) So far, the previous government under SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz has correctly refused to send Taurus- a 500 km range precision weapon, which could hit Moscow- to the Ukraine, since it would automatically have Germany become a party of war in Ukraine. The technology cannot be steered without German assistance and US reconnaissance help.
Strong warning from Russia
The Kremlin promptly reacted by stating that Germany with this commitment would open “a new round of escalation” i.e. become a target of Russian attacks, while former Russian President Medvedev (known for his provocative utterings) stated in reference to Merz: “Think about it twice, NAZI.” The EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Luxemburg reacted favorably to Merz proposal, which was to be expected. This included Netherlands Foreign minister Caspar Veldkamp, who saw this Merz statement as an important signal for Europe, while the Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski called Merz’ offer “very good” and the well-known Russophobe -EU high representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas- emphasized “We must do more, to enable Ukraine to defend itself and make sure that civilians don’t die in Sumy.”
The same Kaja Kallas, who comes from Estonia, at the foreign ministers’ s meeting made another major warning to the European leaders. It was directed against those who want to participate in the 9th May celebrations taking place in Moscow, in order to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Great Patriotic War that brought about the end of World War II. “We made it very clear that we do not want any (EU) candidate country to take part in the events taking place in Moscow on May 9- this is very clear,” the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy said, referring mainly to the six Western Balkan countries seeking EU membership. It is an outrageous attack which demonstrates European “insanity” and tremendous ignorance about the history of the second World War, in which Russia with almost 30 Mio war victims played a major role in liberating Germany and the rest of Europe from the Nazi regime under Hitler and its barbaric crimes perpetrated against Jews in the Concentration Camps. Slovak PM Robert Fico was outraged about this Kallas warning, confirming that he would attend the victory parade in Moscow, which commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany. He correctly called Kallas’ statement “disrespectful” by stating: “Mrs. Kallas, I would like to inform you that I am a legitimate Premier of Slovakia, a sovereign country. Nobody can order me where to go or not to go.”
The new multipolar world emerging
We should look at some interesting remarks that were made by Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov at the recent “Antalya Diplomacy Forum” (11-13 April), which gathered many leaders from the Arab world as well as from the Global South and a tiny fraction from the West (US and Europe). What Lavrov said during a hour- long Question and Answer period should be understood as a “realist” answer to the “collective hysteria” coming from the West, in particular from Europe, a former obedient vassal of the US that is now in an open revolt against President Trumps peace initiative.
Lavrov stated that the “Multipolar World” is indeed becoming bigger, in which more and more countries “would like to have an equal say.” He underlined that “this is a chance for the UN Charter principles to be realized. Everybody should be treated with respect.” He expressed understanding for what he saw in Washington, namely the message given recently by US Foreign Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whereby the global order based on unipolarity is coming to an end. “The world will be multipolar and Washington in this context will have to defend its national interests”, Rubio said. According to Lavrov the new US administration basically states that “US foreign policy will be based on US national interests and they recognize that other countries also have national interests, i.e. materialize this into mutually beneficial projects. Big powers should not allow that the situation degenerates into hot conflicts.” According to Lavrov the “EU and OSCE failed to see this, i.e. they failed to consolidate security and stability. They only implemented instability.” Whether we look at Germany or France and the UK “efforts are made to get a new war going.” He talked about Africa and its organization OAU as well as Latin America and their respective alliances. He remarked however that “in Eurasia there was never anything like this” (alliance) and he referred to the famous speech by President Putin in June last year, who in the Foreign Ministry suggested to launch a discussion about a potential “Eurasian Security Architecture.” Lavrov stated that the Western part of Europe would be invited to become part of this and by making reference to already existing structures such as the SCO and the Eurasia Economic Union, Lavrov stated “we call it ‘Great Eurasian Partnership’ that represents a potential for a future Security Architecture. We are in favor of such interactive discussions.”
Lavrov underlined that Russia always in the past years wanted “legally binding guarantees.” He stated that “NATO and the OSCE failed to strengthen security. Eurasia is the biggest potential. It has no ‘roof’ but it has great civilizations coming from Eurasia.”
In terms of the Trump administration, Lavrov said that the relations which we are now seeing on a certain level have just to do with the fact that the two countries are finally talking to each other. The Biden administration decided that Russia must learn a lesson. They punished and isolated Russia. What Trump suggested, is to come back to normalcy and to stop having an ideologizing posture. It’s a disgrace for the US. We discussed the normalization of relations. … We want to see that projects get realized that we can work on. When we met in Riyadh (S.A.U.) we touched upon regional issues, such as Ukraine, Mideast and we were speaking about eliminating the root causes of the conflict. President Trump was the first and the only one among Western leaders, who stated repeatedly that it was a mistake to pull Ukraine into NATO.”
Lavrov added that Keir Starmer and Macron are only interested in destabilization. “They never want a stabilizing force (he said this in reference to the proposed “peacekeeping force” of the pathetic Coalition of the Willing E.H.) “Trump seems to understand much more than the European leaders (except Hungary and Slovakia.) Macron has had no discussion with Russia and Zelensky keeps saying that we must have fighting units against Russia. Keith Kellog, Trumps advisor for Ukraine, suggested that we must make a deal and guarantee the sovereignty of Ukraine. My answer is ‘You want peace keepers and keep the damned regime? Not ask the regime to implement the UN Charter? You ignore the Human Rights violations (abolishing Russian language etc.) and you discuss the deployment of military? They want to use this to protect the Nazi regime’.”
Quincy Adams Institute Director on a new European Security Order
One should add to Lavrovs statement remarks made by former CIA analyst Russia desk and today’s strategic director of the Quincy Adams Institute George Beebe (in an interview with Glenn Diesen). He qualified the recent Rubio remark as a significant signal that the unipolar order is going to be replaced by a multipolar world order. Even if the US is still the most powerful country it cannot coerce every country, Beebe said. “We have to return again to a ‘balance of power’ and understand the role of ‘Diplomacy.’ We have to find a way of balancing power and interests. And the US has to re- learn what it once understood well.” Beebe underlined that from this point of view the “transatlantic relationship” will have to change in a significant way. In this great power balancing Europe will have to be one pole. “We want to end the US primacy of being the world’s policeman.”
He reviewed the post war history and the period in which the US was the most powerful in terms of exporting its manufactured products. This then shifted and the US concentrated more and more on financing and expansion of the service sector.
Being asked to what extent Russia’s core interests in the Ukraine war can be met, Beebe said that since Russia is a great power, there has to be cooperation between Russia and the West. “You can’t have maximalist goals fulfilled and the US is not in a position to force Russia into capitulation.” He very much underlined that from the point of view of American interests, in order to find a solution in the Ukraine war, the “question how to shape a European Security Architecture” is key. Since the fall of the Berlin wall, the European security order was a major concern for Russia, in terms of a NATO- centric Europe.
According to Beebe there has to be a much broader comprehension of European Security Order. Particularly in respect to issues like “arms control measures.” All this will be vital. While the Russians want this in principle, Beebe cautioned that from Europe “there is a lot of reluctance to engage in this. This has first to do with the break- down of trust. And 2nd with the way in which the EU was established. It is nothing but ‘establishing rules.’ The notion that Russia might have a say in this is alarming for Europe. I.e. there is not a lot of eagerness in Europe to find some compromise with Russia (!)” The US for geopolitical reasons has understood that it needs détente with Russia. The key question is “Can Europe be an independent pole in a multipolar world? The Trump administration knows what it is trying to achieve.” According to Beebe the problem is that Europe looks at Russia as the equivalent of Nazi Germany, that tries to rebuild its empire. He compared this to a never-ending spiral model. Hence the only prescription to deal with the problems is diplomacy. So, “Europe has to recognize that it will have to diplomatically engage with Russia (…) We must step up this engagement with Europe. The US has to directly engage with Europe. Time is not on the US side. And I hope we can bring Europe on the US board. “
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